Maritime Power Shapes the World Order – And is Undergoing a Sea Change (link)
Recent attacks on commercial shipping and warships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have brought the ocean back to the forefront of international security.
Western global leadership was the result of centuries of sea mastery. Controlling the global ocean enables the projection of military power all over the world, as well as securing the free flow of goods at sea.
Tensions on the Red Sea and in transport: Fashion is one of the most affected sectors (link)
The cost of rent has doubled and transport times have increased considerably. The tensions surrounding the Red Sea in connection with the attacks by the Houthi Rebels are having an impact on the national and European economic system. A survey by the Italian business association Confcommercio has highlighted the impact of the crisis in the Red Sea on the transport system and the import-export business of Italian companies.
Japan: 4Q23 GDP unexpectedly contracted for a second quarter (link)
Disappointingly, the Japanese economy has fallen back into a technical recession on the back of weak domestic demand. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will likely now become even more cautious about any policy change. We believe the June rate hike option is still valid but with the growing possibility of a delay until 3Q24
Indonesia’s trade surplus slips as exports contract more than anticipated (link)
Indonesia’s latest trade report showed exports falling more than expected while imports showed only a modest increase for the month of January. Exports posted an 8.1% year-on-year drop compared to expectations for a more modest 3.2% contraction. A 24.6% YoY decline in exports of oil products weighed on overall outbound shipments, while non-oil and gas exports also fell by 8.2% YoY.
Weak start to the year for US retail sales and manufacturing (link)
January retail sales and manufacturing output were quite a lot weaker than expected, but we are coming off strong levels after upside surprises in late 2023. The outlook remains one of a slowing growth story as high borrowing costs, tight credit conditions and reduced support from pandemic-era accrued savings create a more challenging environment.
Sticky US inflation reaffirms Fed caution on rate cuts (link)
US inflation failed to moderate as hoped, with housing costs, airfares, medical care and recreation all keeping the run rate for month-on-month inflation hot. Their favoured measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, may be cooling nicely, but the mixed messages mean the Fed can’t relax, with little inclination for imminent rate cuts
Is it too late to agree on a global standard for e-commerce? (link)
E-commerce has grown so quickly and become such a dominant force in global trade that lawmakers and regulators the world over have had difficulty keeping up with the many challenges of an internet-enabled global marketplace.
From data privacy and consumer protection to issues of forced labor, counterfeiting, intellectual property theft, taxation, and more, e-commerce challenges many of the rules that govern traditional commerce. Consequently, those who are responsible for crafting the rules of governance for e-commerce are quite literally making it up as they — and we — go along.
African coffee producing countries urged to add value to coffee export (link)
ADDIS ABABA, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) — While specialty coffee from Africa is gaining popularity among consumers across the world, officials of the African Fine Coffees Association (AFCA) have urged African coffee traders to boost value-added coffee export, and cease export of unprocessed coffee to the international market.
Hay exports tumbled in 2023 (link)
Hay exports in 2023 totaled 3.171 million metric tons (MT), which was down 22% from the 4.04 million MT exported in 2022. According to data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), it was also the first time in five years total hay exports fell below 4 million MT.
Declines in both alfalfa and nonalfalfa hay exports contributed to the drop in total export sales. An aggressive exchange rate is largely to blame for top export markets holding back on U.S. hay, as well as low milk prices in other countries and less international trade in general.
Fiber exports drop 17%, plastic shipments hit record low (link)
The U.S. exported 14.3 million short tons of recovered fiber in 2023, down 17% from 17.1 million tons in 2022. That’s the lowest single-year amount shipped out of the country since 2004, and it’s the third consecutive year of declining export volume.
The largest export markets were India (importing 2.7 million short tons), Thailand (2.5 million), Mexico (1.9 million), Vietnam (1.6 million) and Malaysia (1.5 million).
U.S. apple exports increase in 2023 (link)
Top 2023 export market value for U.S. apples, with percent change from 2022:
REPORTS
United Arab Emirates (Retail Foods) – link
The United States solidified its position as one of the four leading suppliers of consumer-oriented agricultural products to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2022, contributing more than $1 billion in value. This marked a notable 15.8 percent increase over the previous year and represents a two-decade high. Among these products, tree nuts emerged as the top commodity at $491 million. The resurgence in the UAE’s imports aligns with historical trends, driven by a gradual economic recovery, a revival in tourism, government initiatives promoting food security and trade, supply chain stabilization following COVID-19, strong hiring, and trade pacts. Additionally, the UAE’s e-commerce food sector experienced substantial growth, surging 46.6 percent in 2022 to $940 million, with expectations of further growth exceeding $1 billion for 2023. This reflects consumer preference for convenience and competitive pricing. Further advancements in delivery services are expected.
European Union – Economic Woes Slows Growth in EU Organic Sales – link
EU organic sales decreased slightly in 2022, but rebounded in 2023 due to recovering economic conditions. Despite the slowdown, good prospects for U.S. organic product exports to the EU remain. Trade shows like BioFach, the world’s largest organic trade fair, provide an excellent gateway for U.S. companies to establish contact with business partners. This report provides an overview of the EU market, policy, and trade related to U.S. organic exports.
